Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.
Raw format is kinda hard to work with
However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.
But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlationRetail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.
Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limitsOne common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.
Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk managementThanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Follow Golden Rules and Consistently Win Tradessubmitted by alfafinancials5 to u/alfafinancials5 [link] [comments]
Habits are something that is very difficult to change, so why not cultivate some good habits. For a Trader one such habit should be of winning trades. But certainly to achieve that some techniques or golden rules must be practiced wholeheartedly. Systematic Planning and following that is one of the basic rules a trader must follow. A combination of all such techniques when applied together forms the mantra that leads you to the path of success.
The paramount techniques that every plan must have:
Examine your skills
Trade only when you are ready to trade. Know your skills and plan accordingly, because when you follow the tricks what other traders do, sometimes it might not work. So realizing your skills and planning according to it would earn you profit.
Be prepared consciously
For a Trader, the mental strength is an important factor, be it his/her daily life or in forex trading. A trader should not get affected by any mental or physical trauma that will interrupt the way to his/her success. A trader must set a goal and repeat it like an incantation to stay away from any distractions. To be in a place where distractions are bound, a trader must learn to dodge.
Set the Risk levels
The reason a trader must have his/her risk level in a safer zone is because there is a chance that your portfolio will be on risk. The range can be set anywhere around 1% to 5%.
Keep your intentions high
There is a saying "What you think, you become". So think Big and set your goals higher while keeping your head on your neck and setting real & achievable targets and also focusing on the risk to reward ratios. When you realize the profit is much greater than the risk, it is worth taking the risk. Carry on with the same approach with some high goal and believe that you can achieve it with your skill in trading.
Practice in private.
Practice makes man perfect but definitely, there is a difference between bravery and stupidity. You can’t afford to invest your hard earned money for a gamble in trading without a deep study of the things going around. Have an eye on what is happening around the world before stepping into the market. Get to know whether the overseas market is moving up or down so it will be useful for you to plan accordingly.
No matter which trading system and program you work on, the only thing you need to make sure is that you tag or mark the major and minor support and resistance levels. Setting notifications or alarms for your entry and exit signals would be a great idea and to safeguard this you need to make necessary arrangements to easily identify these signals when received, using a visual or audible method.
A plan to exit
Traders passionately concentrate on how to enter a market, but they don’t concentrate on when and where to exit, which is equally important as the entry level. Better make a proper plan for the exit before entering a trade. Traders don’t sell off their positions if the market is going against them as they don’t prefer to be in the stage of loss. A trader must be very confident and he /she should get over the loss and move forward. More comparingly, traders tend to lose more than winning, in the field of trading. So by managing the money, traders do make profits at the end.
Maintaining the data for the trades your won & loss is another good practice a trader must follow. Note down the entry & exit points you choose, open & closed positions of the market at that time, the targets that you had set for the support & resistance levels, and even the Overseas market updates. Equally important is the data & conditions that landed you in a loss will enable you to understand the factors that went against you and those which can be avoided and taken care in the future. Keeping a track of all your trading strategies will make you a successful trader.
Taking into consideration all of the above points if followed sincerely will lead your way towards a successful trading career. Nobody can guarantee that every trade will be profitable, it is your efforts and skills in studying the market along with your presence of mind that will lead your way. No matter what happens you should not be driven by your emotions while trading. Trading on paper and real money trading are two different things but yes surely practicing more will give you some extra confidence to take a brave step as you have already tested it on paper.
We Alfa Financials one of the regulated forex brokers in UAE offers access to many forex trading pairs through your trading account.
Simple Forex Trading Strategies → Simple Range-Bound Forex Trading Strategy. 0 Simple Range-Bound Forex Trading Strategy. Traders sought out for range-bound zones when trading the forex market, and they tend to do this in a bid to spot possible breakouts. The theme here is to spot range areas in the market, having it mind that such zones precedes a possible breakout, which are usually profit ... Range bound trading using technical analysis. The first step to implement a range bound trading strategy is to identify a market that is trading sideways, or stationary as it is called in the academic world, because applying a range bound strategy to a trending market is an easy way to lose money and is typically how the retail trader will blow up their accounts. Look at the right place. Some ... Range trading is one of many viable trading strategies available to Forex traders. These strategies are generally associated with lack of market direction and can be a handy tool to have in the ... The primary tool for the range trading forex strategy is technical analysis. Length of the trade . For the range approach of buying and selling, the strategy has no fixed length for the trades as the forex trading strategies bound by length are suitable for every time frame. An integral part of this strategy is the management of trading risks as breakouts occur during the trading. To prevent ... Because of that, Bollinger Bands provide a good tool for breakout strategies. When the bands are thin and contracted, volatility is low and there should be little movement of price in one direction.. However, when bands start to expand, volatility is increasing and more movement of price in one direction is likely.. Generally, range trading environments will contain somewhat narrow bands ... Binary Options Range Trading Strategy. Today, we shall examine another binary options trading strategy, which is exclusively used for trading the In/Out binary option, otherwise known as the boundary trades. A boundary option is one trade option that gives four possible outcomes, depending on the broker that you are using. The trade outcomes are as follows: a) Ends outside the range: Here the ... Proven Trading Strategies - Free eBook; Forex Articles; Forex Social Trading Guide; Forex Glossary; Forex Basics; Forex Webinars ; Forex Regulations; Trading Tools. DailyForex Mobile App; Need Help Choosing a Broker? Report Broker Scams; Forex Widgets English Home; Technical Analysis; Gold Price Forecast; Gold Forecast: Range Bound Trading. Gold Forecast: Range Bound Trading. Christopher Lewis ...
[index]          
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. How to Grow a Small Account Day Trading? Penny Stocks NOT the only way for Beginner Traders! - Duration: 12:26. Humbled Trader 18,262 views This Market Geeks video describes basic factors to help traders determine if markets are trending or are range bound (choppy). Simple visual analysis as well as basic technical indicators are ... Mean Reversion Strategy for Forex Markets http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/technical-analysis.html Check Mark's Premium Course: https://pri... http://priceactiontradingsystem.com/more-on-price-action-trading-strategies-and-breakouts/ Learn how to use price action to trade ranges. Futures, stocks and... इस strategy से FOREX शेयर मार्केट और क्रिप्टो में रोज़ आसानी से पैसा कमाओ Download the #OctaFX #Forex ... Get Stealth EA here: http://www.ea-coder.com/stealth-ea/ Want to get these types of videos immediately as they are released? Follow me on Twitter: http://twi... CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFO: https://rebrand.ly/forex33 And start earning in the Forex Market Now! In our growing multinational business setting, there are busi... Day Trading: Trade the 2B Strategy ... Professional Forex Trading Course Lesson 1 By Adam Khoo - Duration: 58:55. Adam Khoo 3,107,259 views. 58:55. Forex Trend Indicators - How To Find The Good ... Strategies for Range Trading Markets. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/technical-analysis.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MO...